A study released in August 2026 estimates that more than 1.2 million people were waiting in the EB-1, EB-2, and EB-3 categories in December 2025. Learn what the figure measures and why each case requires an individual assessment.
A recent estimate put the number of people in the accumulated waiting line, known as the backlog, for the first three employment-based green card preference categories — EB-1, EB-2, and EB-3 — at more than 1.2 million. The figure is striking, but it needs to be understood precisely: it is not an individual waiting time, does not automatically show when someone will receive a green card, and does not replace an assessment of each case's category, country of chargeability, and priority date.
The National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP) study, released in August 2026, estimates that 1,264,495 people were waiting in these three categories in December 2025. According to the organization, the calculation uses USCIS data on principal beneficiaries with approved petitions and estimates the number of dependents. The total should therefore be described as an NFAP estimate, not as a single count published by USCIS.
What is behind the backlog?
The employment-based immigration system has preference categories. In broad terms:
EB-1 covers, among others, individuals with extraordinary ability, outstanding professors and researchers, and certain multinational executives or managers.
EB-2 may cover professionals with advanced degrees or individuals with exceptional ability, depending on the requirements of the category and the case.
EB-3 includes certain classifications of professionals, skilled workers, and other workers.
These categories are subject to annual numerical limits. The law also establishes a per-country limit, subject to applicable allocation rules. When demand exceeds the visa numbers available for a category and country of chargeability, a backlog forms that may be reflected in the dates published each month by the Department of State.
This mechanism helps explain why two people in similar categories may face very different circumstances. Nationality alone does not determine the outcome; for visa availability purposes, the assessment generally considers the country of chargeability and the rules applicable to the case.
Why the Visa Bulletin matters
The Visa Bulletin reports the availability of visa numbers each month. For oversubscribed categories, it provides dates that must be interpreted correctly.
Final Action Dates generally indicate when a visa number may be authorized for issuance in an eligible case. Dates for Filing may indicate when certain applicants can assemble and submit documents to the National Visa Center. For adjustment of status applications within the United States, USCIS announces each month which chart may be used.
In the September 2026 Visa Bulletin, for example, the Final Action Dates chart listed EB-2 India as unavailable and EB-3 India with a date of January 1, 2014. The Department of State had announced in May that the available EB-2 visa numbers for applicants chargeable to India for fiscal year 2026 had been used. These figures are a snapshot of that month, not a permanent forecast: the bulletin and the chart designated by USCIS should be checked before any decision.
The figure is relevant to understanding the scale of the challenge, but it does not mean that everyone will wait the same amount of time. Waiting times may vary depending on factors such as:
preference category;
country of chargeability;
priority date;
availability of visa numbers during the period;
legislative, regulatory, or administrative changes;
the circumstances and history of the case.
NFAP also publishes waiting-time projections for certain profiles and countries. These projections depend on assumptions and may change. They should not be treated as a promise, an assessment of a particular case, or an individual timeline.
It is also important to distinguish a backlog caused by visa availability from the processing time for a form. A case may be ready in one respect while still depending on an available visa number. Likewise, a processing time published by an agency does not, by itself, resolve unavailability in the Visa Bulletin.
How to follow a case with greater clarity
For someone already pursuing employment-based immigration, following headlines or a single figure is generally not enough. A well-informed assessment should examine the immigration classification, priority date, country of chargeability, stage of the process, and current Visa Bulletin. It is also necessary to follow USCIS's monthly instructions on the chart applicable to adjustment of status.
For those still planning a strategy, the backlog reinforces the importance of evaluating possible paths before filing. This does not mean that there is a single solution or a guaranteed outcome: requirements, documents, and consequences depend on the profile and circumstances of each person or company.
